On 11 December 2025, the Polish Army Museum in Warsaw hosted the second edition of the Energy Outlook Forum – one of the most important industry events dedicated to energy which is organised by the Unimot Group, the largest independent fuel and energy group in Poland. The event was attended by leading representatives of politics, business and international experts, including Roman Andarak, Deputy Minister of Energy of Ukraine, Mark Brzezinski, former US Ambassador to Poland, and Michael Kellner, Member of the Bundestag. A welcome message from Wasyl Bodnar, Ambassador of Ukraine to Poland, was also presented.
Forum participants discussed key issues that may shape the energy sector in 2026, taking into account the dynamic geopolitical situation, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and growing tensions in the Middle East. Discussions focused, among other things, on energy security in times of uncertainty and on the energy transition and its impact on politics and the economy. The international experience of the invited guests allowed for placing the discussed topics in a broader geopolitical and macroeconomic context.
In his opening speech, Wasyl Bodnar, Ambassador of Ukraine to Poland, emphasised the crucial importance of energy security, especially in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine and further attacks by the Russian aggressor. He pointed out that:
- Energy is the foundation of every country’s functioning. Polish-Ukrainian relations have never been as important as in recent years, and solidarity between neighbours in the face of threats is crucial. The Energy Outlook Forum 2026 allows us to look at the energy sector from a broader perspective and better understand the interconnections that affect the security and stability of the entire region.
The forum was organised in the form of three discussion panels and three expert presentations, combined with interaction with the audience. During the event, a series of questions were asked to participants about the future of energy security, including oil price forecasts and decisions on sanctions against Russian oil products.
- The goal of Russia is to bring Ukraine to its knees, and the blackout is to serve this purpose. The destruction of power plants, heating plants and transmission lines shows a change in the way war is conducted. Defending the energy sector is becoming as important as protecting other elements of the state. It is not only Poland that redefines the areas for which the military and the civilian sector are responsible, said Prof. Bogusław Pacek, PhD, retired Major General and Director of the Polish Army Museum.
- Ukraine's energy system is the constant target of coordinated missile and cyber attacks. This year, we have recorded about thirteen times more attacks than in 2022. We are focusing on active protection and engineering developments. The energy system must be dispersed and decentralised. We also need backup options so that we can quickly replace one energy source with another, - emphasised Roman Andarak, Deputy Minister of Energy of Ukraine.
- Volatility is enormous today, so businesses must react immediately. In Ukraine, in just three months, 700 private companies engaged in fuel transport – this confirms that the private sector is fast and flexible. This is an important lesson. There is no return to normality, and there will not be for a long time. I do not believe that peace in Ukraine alone will bring global calm – it is only one of the tensions in various parts of the world - said Dr Adam Sikorski, President of the Management Board of UNIMOT S.A.
- Nord Stream was a serious mistake, and Poland was right on this matter. European energy infrastructure should remain under European control. If sanctions are lifted, Europe will pay the price, and the Americans and Russians will want to divide the market between themselves. For us, the energy transition means greater resilience and independence, - noted Michael Kellner, Member of the Bundestag, Germany.
- Since 2019, we have known that the transition will take much longer than originally assumed. Despite this, politicians are still promising to achieve climate targets within the old deadlines. This is unrealistic. We are still living in the era of fossil fuels. The share of electromobility is growing and at some point it will start to replace fossil fuels in real terms – the only question is: when and on what scale? This is a discussion full of nuances that are rarely discussed in public - emphasised Karl Rose, expert and senior executive in the global energy sector, Austria.
– It is said that the war in Ukraine is a drone war. This raises the question of how to defend against them effectively. In 2022, there were far fewer drones, and there were companies on the market offering special spider webs to shield infrastructure, but these did not protect some refineries from attacks. Radio-electronic warfare measures are also available, but are they all effective? – said Artem Kuyun, oil and gas market research expert, Consulting Group A-95, Ukraine, adding that - Within a day and a half of the start of full-scale war, a crisis management team was established to ensure the stability of fuel supplies, and the railways became the backbone of the supply system.
- Is it possible to clearly assess the criticality of a particular fuel storage facility in wartime? I want to emphasise the tremendous work we are doing together with the Ukrainian government. The United States intends to remain a natural partner in LNG supplies – the return of Russian gas to Europe is definitely not in our interest. I consistently hear this position from the White House. We want Europe to enter into long-term contracts for American LNG – said Nathan Reich, Energy Attaché, US Embassy in Poland.
- During my work as a journalist, I discovered that there is no such thing as clean energy. Lithium, cobalt, nickel are all critical metals, rare earth metals extracted at the expense of the environment and human health. From the drying up of regions in Chile to child labour in the Congo – someone else is paying for the green transition today. Moreover, the supply chain for these metals is largely controlled by China, making us increasingly dependent on that country. In the energy transition, we must focus on other solutions – said Vince Beiser, journalist, author of “Power Metal” and “The World in a Grain” books, reporter from over 100 countries, Canada.
- The famous “America First” slogan repeatedly used by President Trump and his closest advisers has turned into “America Alone”. This is not yet autarky, it is not yet complete independence from energy imports, but the United States is clearly and unambiguously building its position in this area, emphasised Marek Magierowski, Director of the “Strategy for Poland” programme at the Institute of Freedom, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Ambassador to Israel and the United States.
- I believe that President Trump will bring about a ceasefire in the first months of 2026. And then, immediately, the modernisation and reconstruction of what has been destroyed in Ukraine will begin, as well as the transformation of Ukraine into a modern economy and a modern society, starting with the energy sector. This is where Americans and Poles can cooperate, achieving profits on an unprecedented scale, said Mark Brzezinski, former US ambassador to Poland.
- Poland is already energy independent from Russia, but it can help other countries to gain independence from it, especially those without access to the sea. This requires a stable regulatory environment, an efficient process for issuing approvals and permits, and the development of new energy infrastructure, such as LNG terminals - noted Prof. Jim Mazurkiewicz, President of the Polish-American Chamber of Commerce in Texas (PolCham TX).
The conclusions of the Energy Outlook Forum 2026 show that the priorities for the energy sector in 2026 will include: decentralisation of systems, European independence and infrastructure development, the role of the private sector, and a realistic pace of energy transition. Unimot has already announced the next edition of the Forum, emphasising the importance of such discussions, which allow for a better understanding of the challenges facing the sector and enable its future to be shaped jointly.
