Energy Outlook

Energy is the foundation of every country’s functioning. Polish-Ukrainian relations have never been as important as in recent years, and solidarity between neighbours in the face of threats is crucial. The Energy Outlook Forum 2026 allows us to look at the energy sector from a broader perspective and better understand the interconnections that affect the security and stability of the entire region.

Nord Stream was a serious mistake, and Poland was right on this matter. European energy infrastructure should remain under European control. If sanctions are lifted, Europe will pay the price, and the Americans and Russians will want to divide the market between themselves. For us, the energy transition means greater resilience and independence.

Ukraine's energy system is the constant target of coordinated missile and cyber attacks. This year, we have recorded about thirteen times more attacks than in 2022. We are focusing on active protection and engineering developments. The energy system must be dispersed and decentralised. We also need backup options so that we can quickly replace one energy source with another.

The goal of Russia is to bring Ukraine to its knees, and the blackout is to serve this purpose. The destruction of power plants, heating plants and transmission lines shows a change in the way war is conducted. Defending the energy sector is becoming as important as protecting other elements of the state. It is not only Poland that redefines the areas for which the military and the civilian sector are responsible.

Volatility is enormous today, so businesses must react immediately. In Ukraine, in just three months, 700 private companies engaged in fuel transport – this confirms that the private sector is fast and flexible. This is an important lesson. There is no return to normality, and there will not be for a long time. I do not believe that peace in Ukraine alone will bring global calm – it is only one of the tensions in various parts of the world.

Since 2019, we have known that the transition will take much longer than originally assumed. Despite this, politicians are still promising to achieve climate targets within the old deadlines. This is unrealistic. We are still living in the era of fossil fuels. The share of electromobility is growing and at some point it will start to replace fossil fuels in real terms – the only question is: when and on what scale? This is a discussion full of nuances that are rarely discussed in public.

It is said that the war in Ukraine is a drone war. This raises the question of how to defend against them effectively. In 2022, there were far fewer drones, and there were companies on the market offering special spider webs to shield infrastructure, but these did not protect some refineries from attacks. Radio-electronic warfare measures are also available, but are they all effective?

Chcę podkreślić ogrom pracy, którą wykonujemy wspólnie z rządem ukraińskim. Stany Zjednoczone zamierzają pozostać naturalnym partnerem w zakresie dostaw LNG – powrót rosyjskiego gazu do Europy zdecydowanie nie jest w naszym interesie. Takie stanowisko konsekwentnie słyszę w Białym Domu. Zależy nam na tym, aby Europa zawierała długoterminowe kontrakty na amerykański LNG.

From the drying up of regions in Chile to child labour in the Congo – someone else is paying for the green transition today. Moreover, the supply chain for these metals is largely controlled by China, making us increasingly dependent on that country. In the energy transition, we must focus on other solutions.

The famous “America First” slogan repeatedly used by President Trump and his closest advisers has turned into “America Alone”. This is not yet autarky, it is not yet complete independence from energy imports, but the United States is clearly and unambiguously building its position in this area, emphasised.

I believe that President Trump will bring about a ceasefire in the first months of 2026. And then, immediately, the modernisation and reconstruction of what has been destroyed in Ukraine will begin, as well as the transformation of Ukraine into a modern economy and a modern society, starting with the energy sector. This is where Americans and Poles can cooperate, achieving profits on an unprecedented scale.

Poland is already energy independent from Russia, but it can help other countries to gain independence from it, especially those without access to the sea. This requires a stable regulatory environment, an efficient process for issuing approvals and permits, and the development of new energy infrastructure, such as LNG terminals