The market of photovoltaic installations, both for individual and institutional customers, has been experiencing a clear upward trend for several years. Photovoltaic installations are becoming more and more popular on the roofs of single-family houses, blocks of flats, production halls or warehouses.
Throughout 2021, more than 396,000 new photovoltaic installations were built with a total capacity of 3774 MW. At the end of December 2021, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in Poland was 7670 MW. This represents an increase by 93.6 percent against December 2020. Currently, renewable energy sources (RES) have a 30% share in electricity generation (almost 17 GW). In the RES sector, photovoltaic is in first place with a 45% share – in November 2021, it overtook wind power for the first time[1].
A large contribution to this growth was made by individual prosumers using the government’s “My Electricity 3.0” installation subsidy programme in 2021. The “My Electricity 3.0” programme started on 1 July 2021 and ended in October due to the exhaustion of the subsidy funds allocated for this purpose in the amount of PLN 534 million. 178 thousand micro photovoltaic installations were subsidised. The new programme “My Electricity 4” is to start under revised rules in Q1 2022. As of September 2018, the “Clean Air” photovoltaic subsidy programme and the so-called thermomodernization relief are still in operation. Entrepreneurs and farmers are also targeted by the financial support programmes “Energia Plus”, “Agroenergia” or the possibility to deduct photovoltaics from agricultural tax. Apart from the above-mentioned nationwide support schemes, there were also a number of regional schemes, such as the Warsaw subsidy or the RES development programme in the municipality of Krakow[2].
Entrepreneurs investing in photovoltaics participate in tenders announced by the President of the Energy Regulatory Office, the winning tender gives the opportunity to sell electricity generated by RES installations. In 2021, two rounds of auctions were held in May-June and December. As a result of the auctions for new photovoltaic installations with a capacity of 1 MW or less, photovoltaic installations with a total installed electrical capacity of 1 200MW may be created, and for new photovoltaic installations with a capacity exceeding 1 MW, photovoltaic installations with a total installed electrical capacity of 1 770MW may be created[3].
In the strategy “Energy Policy of Poland until 2040” developed at the beginning of 2021, the government predicted that photovoltaic capacity of 5-7 GW would be reached by Poland in 2030. Meanwhile, the 5 GW figure was already exceeded in August 2021, and three months later 7 GW[4].
In the perspective of the next few years, the forecasts of the Institute of Renewable Energy do not predict any slowdown in the photovoltaic market. PV farm projects prepared for RES auctions, including large-scale ones, will be the main drivers of the capacity growth. A temporary slowdown may affect the micro-installation segment, but the entire photovoltaic market will not see this effect in the next few years. This is because it is a flexible, scalable technology that operates in many market segments and niches. In addition, in 2022, for the first time, the role of business prosumers will noticeably increase (by at least 200 MW), and this trend will intensify in subsequent years. According to the IEO forecast, the installed capacity in photovoltaics in 2022 will double its value from the end of 2020, and at the end of 2025 it may reach 15 GW. Forecasts also indicate that the turnover in the photovoltaic market will exceed PLN 9 billion annually[5].
The expected development of photovoltaics in the following years will be supported by changes in perception of widely understood ecology, both among natural persons and business entities.
The UNIMOT Group sees its opportunities in further development of renewable energy sources, both in the scope of performance of PV installations for business clients, construction of own RES generation sources, as well as careful observation of market opportunities resulting from perspectives of subsidies in this area.
[1] Source: rynekelektryczny.pl
[2] Source: gov.pl, enerad.pl
[3] Source: rynekelektryczny.pl
[4] Source: enerad.pl
[5] Source: Rynek Fotowoltaiki w Polsce 2021 – Instytut Energetyki Odnawialnej
